I was originally planning to run with my MR friends on 29th Jan, Sat morning for my longest LSD of 32km before tapering down to Tokyo. As it so happened, i just couldn't wake up and get myself to go - felt strangely tired from the tempo effort on Thursday evening. I therefore resolved that i would run my LSD the next day evening (couldn't do Sunday morning either due to a late night movie on Sat) and what better place to run it than at ECP .. plan was to hammer a 32km run...
Drove over to ECP, and parked at B2, and started my run at around 5:45pm. From B2 to Changi Ferry Terminal (CFT) washrooms is about 16.7kms. I was feeling quite ok and thought it would be an interesting few hours - i had never run this long in training before and the one time i did run 27km, it was with friends whereas this was going to be a solo effort.
The first few kms passed a little too quickly as i was averaging mid 5:50's for the first 5-6kms and i knew that this wasnt a pace i could hold. Mcmillan suggests a LSD pace 60-90 seconds slower than your marathon pace (in miles) so i should have ideally been running at a 6:45 /km pace. For some reason, my form suffers if i slow down too much or may be its the other way around - but whatever it was, i was knocking off the kms after that at a steady 6 to 6:15 pace. I also wanted to train drinking on the run so ran nonstop from the B2 carpark all the way to CFT in 1:41 which was a pace of 6:07 min/km. Took a break (later i found out that it was a 10 min break - much longer than i originally intended), had a powerbar gel and then started my way back remembering to slow down and maintain a 6:30 pace. My next mental goal was to reach the water fountain (at around the 25km mark) non-stop and then take a gel-break there. Managed to get there in about 2:35 and had my second power gel. For some reason that didnt go down too well with me and soon after, the wheels came off in no time whatsoever. I dont know what hit me but from there till 30km was the longest 5km stretch i have done in my life - having to sit down twice or thrice in that stretch and hobbling around for my left ankle was in pain, possibly due to a near-fall stumble on the bridge after kicking a lose tile.
At 30km i decided that to pursue 32km would be madness as i had been reduced to a walk-run strategy and was in enough pain to keep any thoughts about running at bay. To boot, from where i stopped running was another 3kms to my car which took me 40 mins almost to cover....
So i think any thoughts of a 4:40 finish at Tokyo is at best, a pipe dream. I think if i manage sub-5, that in itself would be a significant achievement.
I think you shouldn't be too concerned. To do 4:40, you only need to maintain an avg of 6:40 pace. Looking at your splits, you are way too fast at the beginning which is probably why you hit the wall at 25km. Try to be maintained your pace and you should be able to achieve your target at Tokyo. All the best!
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